去年以来最好的投资品——钴：缓慢升向100000美元的里程碑

由于需求预期保持稳定，刚果民主共和国作为钴产地难以撼动的地位令供应前景似乎不确定，钴价已创纪录地大涨。而钴供应可能仍需要等待数年才会上升，原因是完全用其他金属替换钴是一个漫长的过程。

刚果卢本巴希一间工厂内的生钴卷。刚果是钴这种金属的主要生产国。 图片来源：SAMIR TOUNSI/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

一种用于iPhone手机和电动汽车可充电电池的金属是今年表现最好的资产之一，大涨逾20%，超过其他大宗商品。

由于需求预期保持稳定，刚果民主共和国作为钴产地难以撼动的地位令供应前景似乎不确定，钴价已创纪录地大涨。

虽然供应增加的前景已令锂和铜等同样用于电池的金属的动能放缓，但很多投资者预计钴的消费将继续超过产出。锂价今年大致持平，而铜价下跌逾7%。

尽管某些需要钴制造电池和计算机芯片的科技股已下跌，但钴价继续上涨。

分析人士表示，刚果新的采矿法律让那些在该国开采钴的公司面临又一重风险。新法律撤销了对这些公司的保护，增加了新的、更高的钴税和特许费用。一些公司对使用来自刚果的钴持谨慎态度，因为担心一些采矿者是儿童。这已促使一些公司寻找其他钴来源或寻求开采过程中不违背道德底线的钴。

但业界管理人士称，可能仍需要等待数年钴供应才会上升，原因是完全用其他金属替换钴是一个漫长的过程。伦敦金属交易所(London Metal Exchange)上周实物交割的钴每吨达到94750美元，缓慢升向100000美元的里程碑。

监于没有可轻松获得的投资期权以及价格迅速上涨，一些投资者对钴持谨慎态度。自2017年年初以来，钴价现在已上涨近两倍。

其他人指出，即使电动车辆的采用率出现小幅放缓，或者中国相关补贴政策出现变化，都可能导致钴价反转。据Benchmark Mineral Intelligence，中国硫酸钴的价格自去年年初以来已上涨逾一倍。

但很多分析师认为，实物钴的短缺将继续决定市场的走向，投资者可能对钴价的上涨推波助澜。

COBALT derives its name from Kobold, a mischievous German goblin who, according to legend, lurks underground. For centuries it vexed medieval miners by looking like a valuable ore that subsequently turned into worthless—and sometimes noxious—rubble. Once again it is threatening to cause trouble, this time in the growing market for batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), each of which uses about 10kg of cobalt. The source of mischief is no longer in Germany, though, but in China.

【机器翻译】COBALT的名字来自Kobold，一个调皮的德国妖精，据传说，它隐藏在地下。 几个世纪以来，中世纪的矿工看起来像是一种宝贵的矿石，后来变成毫无价值 - 有时甚至是有毒的瓦砾。现在这东西似乎有引起麻烦的威胁，那电动车电池（EV）的电池市场不断增长，每次使用约10公斤钴。而这次恶作剧的根源不在德国，而是中国。

It is widely known that more than half of the world’s cobalt reserves and production are in one dangerously unstable country, the Democratic Republic of Congo. What is less well known is that four-fifths of the cobalt sulphates and oxides used to make the all-important cathodes for lithium-ion batteries are refined in China. (Much of the other 20% is processed in Finland, but its raw material, too, comes from a mine in Congo, majority-owned by a Chinese firm, China Molybdenum.)

众所周知，世界一半以上的钴储量和生产都位于一个危险的不稳定国家刚果民主共和国。目前鲜为人知的是，用于制造锂离子电池最重要的阴极的五分之四的硫酸钴和氧化物在中国得到精炼。（另外20％的大部分在芬兰加工，但其原材料也来自刚果的矿山，大部分由中国公司中国钼公司拥有。）

On March 14th concerns about China’s grip on Congo’s cobalt production deepened when GEM, a Chinese battery maker, said it would acquire a third of the cobalt shipped by Glencore, the world’s biggest producer of the metal, between 2018 and 2020—equivalent to almost half of the world’s 110,000-tonne production in 2017. This is likely to add momentum to a rally that has pushed the price of cobalt up from an average of $26,500 a tonne in 2016 to above $90,000 a tonne.

3月14日，当一家中国电池制造商表示，将在2018年至2020年期间收购世界上最大的金属生产商嘉能可公司三分之一的钴时，对中国抓住刚果钴生产的担忧加深 - 相当于近一半的2017年全球11万吨产量。这可能会推动钴价上涨，将钴价从2016年的平均每吨26,500美元拉动至每吨9万美元以上。

It is not known whether non-Chinese battery, EV or consumer-electronics manufacturers have done similar, unannounced deals with Glencore. But Sam Jaffe of Cairn Energy Research Advisors, a consultancy, says it will be a severe blow to some firms. He likens the outcome of the deal to a game of musical chairs in which Chinese battery manufacturers have taken all but one of the seats. “Everybody else is frantically looking for that last empty chair.”

目前还不知道非中国电池，电动汽车或消费电子制造商是否与Glencore做过类似的未经宣布的交易。 但咨询公司Cairn Energy Research Advisors的Sam Jaffe表示，这将对一些公司造成严重打击。 他将这笔交易的结果比作一场音乐剧，其中中国电池制造商占满了位置除了其中一个席位。 “每个人都疯狂地寻找最后一把空椅子。”

Mr Jaffe doubts the cobalt grab is an effort by Chinese firms to corner or manipulate the market for speculative ends. Instead, he says, they are likely to be driven by a “desperate need” to fulfil China’s ambitious plans to step up production of EVs.

贾菲先生怀疑钴的战争是中国企业为了投机目的而转向或操纵市场的努力。 相反，他表示，他们很可能受到“绝望的需求”的驱使，以实现中国加速生产电动汽车的宏伟计划。

Others see it more ominously. George Heppel of CRU, a consultancy, says that, in addition to GEM sweeping up such a sizeable chunk of Glencore’s output, China Moly may eventually ship its Congo cobalt home rather than to Finland, giving China as much as 95% of the cobalt-chemicals market. “A lot of our clients are South Korean and Japanese tech firms and it’s a big concern of theirs that so much of the world’s cobalt sulphate comes from China.” Memories are still fresh of a maritime squabble in 2010, during which China restricted exports of rare-earth metals vital to Japanese tech firms. China produces about 85% of the world’s rare earths.

其他人认为它更不祥。咨询公司CRU的George Heppel表示，除了要收货的创业板公司，Glencore的产量还有很大的一部分，中国钼业最终可能将其刚果钴矿运抵芬兰，而不是芬兰，这给中国高达95％的钴 - 化学品市场。 “我们的很多客户都是韩国和日本的高科技公司，世界上大部分硫酸钴都来自中国，这是他们的一大担忧。”2010年的记忆仍然是记忆犹新，在此期间，中国限制出口 稀土金属对日本科技公司至关重要。 中国生产世界稀土的85％左右。

Few analysts expect the cobalt market to soften soon. Production in Congo is likely to increase in the next few years, but some investment may be deterred by a recent five-fold leap in royalties on cobalt. Investment elsewhere is limited because cobalt is almost always mined alongside copper or nickel. Even at current prices, the quantities needed are not enough to justify production for cobalt alone.

很少有分析师预计钴市场会很快走软。 刚果的产量在未来几年可能会增加，但最近钴的专利使用费最近翻了5倍，可能会阻止一些投资。 其他地方的投资有限，因为钴几乎总是与铜或镍一起开采。 即使在目前的价格下，所需的数量也不足以证明仅钴生产是合理的。

But demand could explode if EVs surge in popularity. Mr Heppel says that, though most cobalt is currently mined for batteries in smartphones and for superalloys inside jet engines (see chart), its use for EVs could jump from 9,000 tonnes in 2017 to 107,000 tonnes in 2026.

但如果电动汽车的普及率上升，需求可能会爆炸。Heppel先生说，虽然目前大多数钴用于智能手机电池和喷气发动机内的超耐热合金（见图表），但其用于电动汽车的用量可能从2017年的9000吨增加到2026年的107,000吨。

The resulting higher prices would eventually unlock new sources of supply. But already non-Chinese battery manufacturers are looking for ways to protect themselves from potential shortages. Their best answer to date is the other “goblin metal” closely associated with cobalt, nickel, whose name comes from a German spirit closely related to Old Nick.

由此产生的较高价格最终将释放新的供应来源。 但非中国电池制造商已经在寻找方法来保护自己免受潜在的短缺。迄今为止他们最好的答案是另一种与钴，镍密切相关的“哥布林金属”，它的名字来源于与老尼克密切相关的德国精神。

The materials most commonly used for cathodes in EV batteries are a combination of nickel, manganese and cobalt known as NMC, and one of nickel, cobalt and aluminium known as NCA. As cobalt has become pricier and scarcer, some battery makers have produced cobalt-lite cathodes by raising the nickel content—to as much as eight times the amount of cobalt. This allows the battery to run longer on a single charge, but makes it harder to manufacture and more prone to burst into flames. The trick is to get the balance right.（编辑：张鹏艳）